We are already in the bubble and it is just a matter of when and not if; if the latest post in TechCrunch is anything to go by.
Ads are intrusive, period. Unsolicited ads are spam. And I would definitely be happy to pay a marginal premium for seeing adfree content. TiVo is profitable not for nothing. And I am yet to see a hugely successful service other than Google that runs only on ads – And I think ads as a way to sell anywhere and anytime is overblown. C’mon, there is no two ways about it.
Putting ads in search engines has an intent, the user is already looking for the product/service. The ads enhance this value to the intent. The search engine already has her complete attention as she is already searching for new services/products. But not everywhere. A chat is not a place where I want to learn about new services/products; a conversation is already in place and that already has my attention. I am yet to see a IM conversation with intrusive ads which enhance the experience.
Not that ads don’t work; they do, for long we have seen TV channels, newspapers staying alive because of that. But they are not completely free either, they still charge some cost to cover the gaps. But to give an advice that any direct B2C product/service be free and supported by ads is just plain ridiculous. Good software design costs bucks, its development and maintenance costs too. Advising a (every) company to give a product for free and live by using ads is just plain BS. And users are definitely not going to be thrilled to see a (irrelevant) ad pop while in the middle of some conversation.
If this is the way things are, its just a matter of when the bubble bursts. Oh and btw just have look at the comments in the TechCrunch posts. Lots of voices of sanity in this already noisy business. Gems abound though…
Two new articles(both reviews on books) caught my attention in K@W this week. One a book about the myth of Self-Helpish Books and the other on Cash-Curve. Loved the tone of each of them:
Halo effect is an effort at debunking the myth of having the guidelines for a great performance/manager. Instead it simply focuses on “Why is it so hard to understand high performance?”. It tackles many delusions:
- The delusion of correlation and causality
- The delusion of single explanations
- The delusion of rigorous research
Havent we heard all this before. The repeated (failed) attempts of GUT. Or trying to arrive at a one size fits all solution. Or the one simple mantra that is the secret of success of a company. The review of the book looks compelling – have to get a reading of the book..
- Good strategies involve risk and no strategy is foolproof.
- Execution also is uncertain. What works well for one company may not be effective for another company.
- Chance plays a greater role in success than managers may want to admit.
- Bad outcomes don’t always mean that managers made mistakes. Likewise, favorable outcomes don’t necessarily mean that the managers made brilliant decisions.
- Finally, Rosenzweig says that “when the die is cast, the best managers act as if chance is irrelevant. Persistence and tenacity are everything.”
Sort of reinforces my thought, market validates all. Forget the media and get back to work.
The cash curve is based on four “S factors”: Startup costs, or the pre-launch investment; Speed, or the time it takes to get the product to market; Scale, or the time it takes for the product to build a critical volume of customers; and Support costs, or the investment that is needed to keep a new product or service up and running after it has been launched. The cash curve plots cash flow over time as the product goes through successive phases of idea generation, commercialization and realization.
Amazing clarity there on the product. Of course the Apple takes the cake here. But just be careful its not the Halo Effect showing its effect
Close on looking at the Stroke Foundation of UK, and frankly that Im now officially jobless and penniless entrepreneur on the look out for business ideas, I had this braintide about implementing a new business idea : HitClub.
Every business that has a very strong correlation to the real life wins. Its as simple as that. So heres the idea.
HitClub consists of two active participants. One the hitters and the others hit-me. Hitters are the frustrated candidates who want to vent out their frustrations of bad bosses, ultra lazy government bureaucrats, idiotic teachers. Now these guys want a way out to vent their frustrations by hitting someone. In real life this can give you a good deal of a coverage for dealing in domestic violence or manslaughter. However we will make it easy for the Hitters.
We have other set of people called the Hit-Mes who are the guys Hitters can use as targets of their frustration. Basically, Hit-Mes charge very prohibitive costs for taking in the punches, kicks et al while the Hitters pay money for helping getting their frustrations out. The business idea is in connecting Hit-Mes to your Hitters and start charing a percentage for each session and lo and behold you have a business in hand!
Anyone who really sees a potential in this idea can contact me asap. Lets work something out )